13 November 2009

Bumper System Update

It's been almost a month since I let you in on the little system Jimmy Pugh and I had developed, so I'll tell you how it's going.

The system involved backing all the horses that ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper in their first few starts over hurdles. Here's a breakdown of how they've done since:

Dunguib (1st) - the winner of the bumper, he was always going to be decent over timber. He won first time out at odds of 1/7. Not enough to make you rich but it's profit nonetheless. He's in tomorrow at Punchestown 1.50.
Some Present (2nd) - he won first time out at 13/8. He's come second twice since then.
Morning Supreme (5th) - won at 1/2. Entered in a Fairyhouse Grade 1 at the end of the month.
Cranky Corner (7th) - won at 5/4. Well beaten at Aintree since.
Shinrock Paddy (8th) - won at 1/2. Entered in same Grade 1 as Morning Supreme. Thank God Mr B Connell doesn't ride him over obstacles - he looks dangerous enough on the flat.
Pepe Simo (9th) - won twice at 5/2 and 8/11.
Benbane Head (10th) - beaten first time (5/4fav) then made amends at Cheltenham when 8/1.
Meath All Star (11th) - well beaten behind Some Present first time when 5/1.
Long Strand (12th) - tailed off at 10/1.
Red Harbour (14th) - third at 9/4fav.
Fennis Boy (17th) - third at 100/30.
Henry King (18th) - second behind Pepe Simo when 13/8fav.
Double Dash (20th) - second at 7/2. Entered for Plumpton on the 16th November.
Lightening Rod (21st) - tailed off seventh at 7/1.
Cadspeed (22nd) - weakened rapidly when 9/10fav. In on the 16th at Cork 2.35.
Bygones of Brid (23rd) - tailed off 4th at Chepstow when 33/1.
Quinola des Obeaux (last) - won when 8/11fav. In the Grade 1 on the 29th too.

So from these, it looks as if there is no profit in the system this year. Yes, it produces winners but they are good horses and hence win at very short odds. Backing them on their second start looks unprofitable as well as many get beat at short odds but some have improved for their debut.


Finally, here's a round up of the remainders:

Rite of Passage (3rd) - since transformed into a decent flat horse. Won the November Handicap at Leopardstown when 7/1. Holds no entries but is sure to go hurdling sometime.
Quel Esprit (4th) - entered tomorrow at Punchestown 3.30.
Lead The Parade (6th) - unraced/no entries.
Latin America (13th) - unraced/no entries.
Gagewell Flyer (15th) - unraced/no entries.
Sicilian Secret (16th) - entered on Sunday at Cork 3.35.
Abroard (19th) - been campaigned on the flat since, won in September at 10/1. Will probably go hurdling at some point.

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