5 June 2009

Derby Drivel


It's Derby time, roll out the same old debates: Is Epsom a suitable place to run racing's most prestigious event? Can the Irish dominance ever be overturned? Yawn, sleepy, yawn.

The fact is, if it wasn't for the Irish, then there would only be five runners in the Classic. That would be a farce. Thanks to Aidan O'Brien alone the number horses starting the race is in double figures.

It's all swings and roundabouts - some years the Irish seem to be taking over British racing, other times they can't get their name on the board. Come the Breeders' Cup, the media are all to happy to adopt any Irish success as 'ours'.

It is a bit of a sorrowful state though this year that the most fancied English participant is available at odds of 20/1.

What surprised me about the race was the number of runners who are sired by a Derby winner themselves: five by 2001 hero Galileo and one by 2002 victor High Chapparal. This goes to show that far from being unable to inject class, speed and stamina into their progeny, Derby winners can produce Derby winners themselves. Gone are the days when the Cheltenham Gold Cup was the most likely race an Epsom winner would create.

Albeit, and timely with the death of Coolmore genius Vincent O'Brien, this fact has been helped by the impetus of Messrs O'Brien (x2), Magnier and Tabor.

Anyway, you probably want to know who's going to win. I don't know but I'll have a guess:

1st - Sea The Stars
2nd - Crowded House
3rd - Gan Amhras

The Guineas form will be crucial and Sea The Stars won at Newmarket like he was a horse who would get the Surrey venue's 1m4f with ease. I genuinely feel that he is a horse who could win the Triple Crown, ironically, 39 years on since the last horse who did it, Nijinsky. Trained by? Vincent O'Brien. But more is the case that he'll go to Longchamp for the more lucrative prize of the Arc d'Triomphe rather than a gallop on Town Moor.

Crowded House is a tentative selection. The manner of his victory at Doncaster late last year is still fresh in the memory and it thrusted him to the head of the market during the winter. Since then though, he has disappointed in the Dante. The son of Rainbow Quest may have come on since then and if he's back to his best, stays the trip and Spencer doesn't f*ck it up, expect him to be coming home with a surge.

As said the Guineas is a terrific form guide and Jim Bolger's Gam Amhras should stay true to my word without reversing the Rowley Mile form of his conqueror.

Or maybe not...

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